【翻訳記事】What’s Coming in Eldraine Standard 3.0?-「BBD」が占うネクスト・スタンダード-

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この記事は約16分で読めます。

Brian Braun-Duin 11/15/2019 11:02:00 AM 原文はこちら  

Feature Article from Brian Braun-Duin

《王冠泥棒、オーコ》を擁するデッキはMythic Championship VIのメタゲームにおいて、Day1は69%、Day2は71%もの支配率を誇りました。全体の勝率は50%を超え、Top8には彼を相棒に選んだ6名のプレーヤーが進出。そして残り2つの席には、《エッジウォールの亭主》を主戦略としたデッキが顔を揃える結果となったのです。

Oko, Thief of Crowns, Magic, Throne of Eldraine

これを見ても分かるように、スタンダードにおいて《王冠泥棒、オーコ》が最も優れた戦略であることは、トーナメントに参加したプレーヤー全員の共通認識です。メタゲームの構成は大きく二つに分かれ、《王冠泥棒、オーコ》を使用するか、もしくは《王冠泥棒、オーコ》に対して相性が良いと思われるデッキが名を揃えました。しかし、誰もが仮想敵を明確にした構図となったにも関わらず、《王冠泥棒、オーコ》擁するデッキは平均よりも優れたパフォーマンスを見せたのです。多くの優れたプレーヤーが数週間に渡って《王冠泥棒、オーコ》を打ち負かす方法を模索しましたが、やがてそれを諦め彼をプレイする決断を下しました。あなたも、よっぽど良い案が見つからない限りはそれに便乗したほうが得策でしょう。

Mythic Championship VIと同じ週末に開催されたMagicFest Richmondには500~600名の参加者しか集まらず、非常に小規模のトーナメントとなりました。友人たちと話をしたところ、「メインイベントに興味がない。だって、今のスタンダードはイマイチだもの(“kinda sucks right now.”)。」という言葉が返ってきました。これは彼らの言葉ですが、私も同じことを思っています-「Standard “kinda sucks right now”(スタンダードはいま全然イケてないぜ)」。

私はPro TourやMythic Championshipにおいて、これほどまで偏ったメタゲームになったことを見たことがありあません。あのHogaakでもおよそ20%、MTG史上最も優秀なクリーチャー・《死儀礼のシャーマン》を擁する(モダンの)Jundでさえ、およそ40%の使用率に過ぎませんでした。70%という数字は、全くもって前例がないものなのです。

間もなく、スタンダードに何らかの変更が加えられることは明らかだと思います。

前回のMythic Championshipにおける《王冠泥棒、オーコ》の支配率に加え、緊急の禁止・制限改訂を行なうというアナウンス。更には、ソーシャルメディア上で《王冠泥棒、オーコ》禁止を求めるほぼ満場一致の叫び-これで何も起きないわけがありません。

11月18日、スタンダードに変革が訪れます。

No one:何を起こすべきか、何が起こるか、そして、それはスタンダードが前に進むためにどんな意味を持ちますか?

Me:聞かないでくれて有難う。共有したいのでね…詳細に。

What Should Happen?-何が起こるべきか?-

決して、完璧な答えを持っているわけではありません。

私の意見に賛同する人もいれば、そうじゃない人もいるでしょう。そして、ある程度の主観が含まれることとなりますが、とにかく話を進めていきたいと思います。

まず、スタンダードに関する前回の記事を読むことをお勧めします。考えるポイントの多くはこの記事に関連しており、改めてここで記すような事はしたくありません。

もし私がWizards of the Coastの人間であった場合、11月18日の改訂で《むかしむかし》、《金のガチョウ》、《夏の帳》を禁止カードに制定。また、これら3つに加えて(もしくは《夏の帳》の代わりに)、《王冠泥棒、オーコ》、または《世界を揺るがす者、ニッサ》を禁止する事を強く推進します。

私は、WotCが多くの変更を加えることは出来ないと考えています。しかし、“緑“は現在のスタンダードにおいて非常に強力なパワーを持っているため、1~2枚のカードを禁止するくらいでは依然として環境を支配し続ける可能性が高いままです。前回のMythic ChampionshipのTop 8に残ったのは全て緑のデッキで、それらは皆《むかしむかし》を採用していました。《王冠泥棒、オーコ》の禁止だけで、緑の優位性を終わらせることが出来ると思いますか?

私はそうは思いません。

これではまた、「カラデシュ」期のEnergy 2.0になる可能性が十分に考えられます。この当時、度重なる禁止制定を繰り返した結果、終には圧倒的なカードパワーとデッキの根幹を支える「Energy」カード、《ならず者の精製屋》と《霊気との調和》を禁止する運びとなったのです。WotCは根本解決をするのではなくなく、一度ノックアウトさせるだけです。

最近のスタンダードにおける“緑”は、その安定性とアドバンテージ能力が非常に強力であるため、簡単には崩壊しません。3~4枚のカードを禁止したとしても、依然として環境最高色の一つであり続けるでしょう(少なくとも黒の次に良い色であると確信しています)。

Once Upon a Time, Magic, Throne of Eldraine

《むかしむかし》は、カードパワーの問題から禁止とすべきです。フリースペルには、総じてゲームを崩壊させる危険性を有する傾向があります。それに加え、《むかしむかし》は《霊気との調和》同様、非常に高いレベルの安定性と有用な副作用を併せ持っています。まあ、それ自体はさして問題があるとは考えていませんが、既に緑が最高の色である場合、これは環境の閉鎖感を生み出すことになります。1つのデッキが最も強力で、かつ最も安定性を有していた場合、これに対抗するのは非常に困難です。「Food」や「Adventures」戦略を中心としたデッキも、その動力の供給を安定させるため、緑をベースとして《むかしむかし》を採用する必要性があります。

《むかしむかし》は、スタンダードの均衡を大きく捻じ曲げています。これを有することによって、《エッジウォールの亭主》、《金のガチョウ》、《楽園のドルイド》からゲームを開始する安定性が飛躍的に上がり、巨大な《ハイドロイド混成体》によって終わりを迎えるゲームを増加させます。反復したゲームの繰り返しはスタンダードの死を意味し、ロンドンマリガンと組み合わさることによって、《むかしむかし》はその傾向を大きく押し上げています。

Gilded Goose, Magic, Throne of Eldraine

《金のガチョウ》のような1マナのマナクリーチャーは、スタンダードに二度と登場させないで下さい。これは対戦相手に不健全なレベルでの早期対応を迫りますし、また、除去されたとしてもカード1枚分のアドバンテージを稼いでいます。《金のガチョウ》を《ショック》で対処したとしても、残された「食物」が後に《王冠泥棒、オーコ》や《意地悪な狼》によって活用されます。また、当然ながら《ショック》がアドバンテージを稼げることはなく、むしろこれによって1テンポ遅れてしまうことになるのです。なんとも素敵なシナリオですね!

処理手段がドロー出来ていないゲームについても話しましょう。このガチョウを処理するために採用した1マナの除去呪文は、後にトップデッキした際ほとんど意味を持ちません。《金のガチョウ》に対する有効なカウンター呪文はほとんど存在しないため、スタンダードのカードプールでこれをスマートに対処することは非常に困難です。《クロールの銛撃ち》は良い解答となりますが、後攻の場合は既に《王冠泥棒、オーコ》が戦場に現れています。実質、既に仕事は終えているので《クロールの銛撃ち》によるアドバンテージは小さなものになると言えるでしょう。

Veil of Summer, Magic, Core Set 2020

ここまでくると薄々感づいているかもしれません。《夏の帳》も1マナのカードであり、Legacy、Vintage、Modernといったローテーションがないフォーマットにおいても大きな存在感を示しています。Pioneerでは既に禁止カードに制定されており、他フォーマットの均衡を脅かすようなカードパワーを誇っていることを証明しています。《金のガチョウ》と《むかしむかし》は、緑のデッキのクロックと安定性を不健全なレベルにまで高め、《夏の帳》はほぼ全てのカウンター呪文を無効化します。5つのセットから成るスタンダード環境でこれら全てを克服するのは、あまりにも困難な話です。

苦い話だ。《金のガチョウ》、《ラノワールのエルフ》、《エルフの神秘家》のような1マナの加速手段はPioneerにおいても健全ではないと思いますし、《夏の帳》に関しては既に禁止制定されています。これらがスタンダードではセーフであると納得するのは難しいですよね。
私が禁止したいと考えている3枚は全て、0もしくは1マナのカードです。《王冠泥棒、オーコ》デッキから禁止を出し、速度、安定性、そしてカウンター呪文に対する耐性を低下させるのは、スタンダードにおいて健全な処置です。抑圧的な状況と としているのは、軽いコストでゲームに多大なる影響を与えるカードなのです。

私は、《害悪な掌握》がメインデッキに採用されていることはあまり気になりません。-かつて《自傷疵》でも同じことがありましたが、その環境は決して不健全なものではありませんでした-しかし、《害悪な掌握》は自らターゲットを選ぶことが出来るため、早いターンに必ずしも所持しておく必要はありません。

仮に3枚全てのカードを禁止したとしても、Simic Foodがベースとなったデッキがスタンダードで(間違いなく)最高のデッキで在り続けることは容易に想像出来ます。だからこそ、《王冠泥棒、オーコ》、《世界を揺るがす者、ニッサ》といったスタンダードにおいて理不尽なパワーを誇るプレインズウォーカーを禁止することもおかしな判断ではないと考えています。《王冠泥棒、オーコ》はスタンダード以外の(多くの)フォーマットにおいても支配的な力を見せているため、《金のガチョウ》がいなければ大丈夫だと思う反面、それでも禁止措置を取らないリスクが高すぎると思います。

私の意見:

  • 絶対に禁止すべき:むかしむかし、金のガチョウ 
  • 禁止したほうが良い:夏の帳、王冠泥棒、オーコ 
  • 妥当な禁止措置:世界を揺るがす者、ニッサ
  • バッドチョイス:意地悪な狼、ハイドロイド混成体(これらは共に、環境による産物です) 
  • 禁止すべきではないが、二度と許してはいけない:楽園のドルイド(マナ加速手段に呪禁を付与するのは止めましょう。ゲームがつまらなくなります。

What Will Actually Happen?-実際は何が起こるでしょうか?-

私には本当に想像がつきません。WotCには過去1年間、カードの禁止(または解禁)について何度もビックリさせられました。かつては予測出来ると思ってたものが、いまでは全く見当もつかないのです。

しかし、《王冠泥棒、オーコ》が禁止される可能性は非常に高いと思います。最も注目を集めているカードであり、仮に禁止措置をせずに今後もフォーマットを支配し続けるようであれば、大量のスタンダードプレーヤーが反発を起こしたり、ゲームの引退をする危険性があり、それはWotCとMTGアリーナに長期的な損害を与えることとなります。

Caw-Bladeが支配していた時代を思い出してください。《王冠泥棒、オーコ》は、それを更に上回る不健全さです。WotCが出来る/すべき、最も健全/安全な策が、《王冠泥棒、オーコ》を禁止することなのです。だからこそ私は、彼が禁止される可能性が非常に高いと考えています。

他にも1枚を禁止カードに制定するのではないかと疑っています。その可能性がありそうなカードを順に並べると、《夏の帳》-《禁のガチョウ》or《むかしむかし》のいずれかになります。個人的にはこれらを少しでも多く、出来れば全て禁止する事を望んでいますが、実際にそうはならないでしょう(私の予想が間違っていることを願います)。

Nissa, Who Shakes the World, Magic, War of the Spark

もし2枚のカードだけを禁止とする場合、そのうちの一つは《王冠泥棒、オーコ》であり、もう一つ軸の候補となるのは間違いなく《世界を揺るがす者、ニッサ》でしょう。この措置をとった場合、《意地悪な狼》と《ハイドロイド混成体》はパワーバランスは正常なものとなります。仮に《意地悪な狼》と《ハイドロイド混成体》を禁止し、最も強力なカード(オーコとニッサ)を禁止しないのであれば、将来的に更なる禁止措置を必要とする大きな間違いとなるでしょう。

私の予想:

  • 2枚のカードが禁止されます:王冠泥棒、オーコ+夏の帳、金のガチョウ、むかしむかしのいずれか。

What Will That Mean for Standard?-スタンダードにどんな影響をもたらしますか?-

これは、実際にWotCがどんな決断を下すかによって変わってきます。

私のアドバイスに従い、3~4枚のカード(金のガチョウ、むかしむかし、夏の帳、王冠泥棒、オーコ)を禁止した場合、緑以外のデッキが脚光を浴びる可能性が非常に高くなるでしょう。黒はスタンダードで2番目に優れた色であると思っていますので、エルドレイン・スタンダード3.0では間違いなく成功を収めるでしょう。

最初に試してみたいデッキは、Rakdos Aggroです。《真夜中の死神》、《波乱の悪魔》、《失われた神々の僧侶》といった軸に、《魔女のかまど》+《大釜の使い魔》シナジーを組み合わせたサクリファイス戦略にはあまり関心はなく、Rakdos Knightsを代表とした、真っ直ぐな“Rakdosらしい”アグロデッキに興味があります。

これがRakdos Knightsのサンプル・リストです。Willy EdelがMythic Championshipで使用したものに、改良を加えています。

RAKDOS KNIGHTS

by Willy Edel

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Rakdos Aggroは、Willyがサブテーマとして設けていた「Knight」の部分を削ぎとり、代わりに《騒乱の落とし子》や《悪ふざけの名人、ランクル》といったパワーカードを加え、黒の除去や他の優秀なアグロクリーチャーと組み合わせて構築しています。《漆黒軍の騎士》と《朽ちゆくレギサウルス》は、マジック史の中でも屈指のアグロ性能を持った黒いクリーチャーです。現在スタンダードで使われていないカードのほとんどは、間違いなく緑の(強すぎる)カード達による影響が大きいと考えられます。

Esper Doom

A deck by Zach Allen

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Xが禁止になれば帰ってくると誰しもが思っているデッキの一つが、Doom Foretold Esperです。多くのプレーヤーは、《死者の原野》が禁止された時にこのデッキがメタゲームに復活してくると考えていました-しかし、それは成しえていません。今回も《王冠泥棒、オーコ》が禁止されればメタゲームに食い込めると考えているプレーヤーがいるかとは思いますが、そこに私は含まないで下さい。

このデッキは恐ろしいほど甘い蜜(魅力)を持っていますが、騙されてはいけません。決して、デッキの軸となる戦略が悪いというわけではありません。問題は、単に安定性が欠如しており、そのせいで多くの不都合を起こしやすいということです。マナスクリュー/フラッド、《予言された壊滅》や《屋敷の踊り》を引くことが出来ず(もしくはこれらばかり引き過ぎて)によって簡単にゲームに敗北します。これは、ハイオクのガソリンです-Tier1に位置できるほど優秀なデッキとはなれません。

SELESNYA ADVENTURES

by Andrew Cuneo

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Selesnya Adventuresはスタンダードで最高のデッキの一つになると考えています。他のクリーチャーデッキに対して非常に優れた性能を持っており、サイドボードにはコントロールに対する有効なサイドプランも有しています。多くのプレーヤーがRakdosやGruulなどを試した場合、Selesnya Adventuresは素晴らしい成果を上げてくれるでしょう。とは言え、このデッキにとっても《むかしむかし》の損失は非常に大きく、むしろそれに関しては他のどのデッキよりもダメージを受けることになるかもしれません。

GOLGARI ADVENTURES

by Eli Kassis

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Golgari Adventuresにはあまり期待を抱いていません。これは《王冠泥棒、オーコ》に対するメタデッキであり、“random”デッキ(オーコ以外のデッキ)に対してあまり良い戦略を有してはいません。そう、現在のメタゲームだからこそ繁栄を果たしているのです。《夏の帳》はGolgari Adventuresの天敵となるカードであるため、これが禁止されれば好機となる可能性はありますが、均等なメタゲームに変われば選択する理由はないでしょう。

私は、《世界を揺るがす者、ニッサ》+《ハイドロイド混成体》を有する緑のデッキは、たとえ上記で提案した4枚のカードが全て禁止されたとしてもメタゲームに存在し続けると考えています。最も可能性が高いのが、《時を解す者、テフェリー》や《時の一掃》を使用して、クリーチャーを中心とした戦略に対する優位を築くことが出来るBant Rampです。デッキパワーは少し足りないかもしれませんが、調整を重ねることで少なくともTier2の戦略として地位を得ることになるでしょう。

WotCが《王冠泥棒、オーコ》、と他(ニッサ以外)のカードのみを禁止する決断をした場合は、《世界を揺るがす者、ニッサ》+《ハイドロイド混成体》デッキは依然としてTier1に君臨し、スタンダードで最高のデッキとなる可能性が高いでしょう。

《夏の帳》が禁止カードとなる場合、黒いアグロデッキは十分にこのデッキと渡り合うことが出来るようになると思います。また、もし《夏の帳》が継続されるならば、Adventuresがこれと競い合うことになると考えています。特に、《金のガチョウ》が禁止されて《むかしむかし》が継続であった場合はそれが顕著となるでしょう。

最後に。禁止カードが少なすぎる場合、スタンダードは《世界を揺るがす者、ニッサ》擁するランプデッキと、それを強く意識したメタデッキ1~2個でメタゲームを構成する形になると思います。これは、《王冠泥棒、オーコ》と共に《世界を揺るがす者、ニッサ》を禁止し、デッキパワーを著しく低下させることによって解決出来ます。

TEMUR RECLAMATION

by Stefan Schutz

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Temur Reclamationのようなデッキはいつも、Rampに対する有効な戦略として登場してきます。しかし、正直これが良いデッキであるとは考えていません-前回のMythic Championshipの数字がこれを裏付けています。人々はこのデッキを何度も信じようとしますが、プロプレーヤーがModernのAzorius Controlを信じ続けることにもよく似ているよう、高いレベルのイベントにおいてこれらのデッキが良い数字を弾き出すことはほとんどありません。

Temur Reclamationは《王冠泥棒、オーコ》に強いデッキとしてプレイされましたが、基本的に他のデッキ相手には相性が良くありません。また、《王冠泥棒、オーコ》相手にもそれほどの成績は上げていないのです。何が禁止されるかに関わらず、このデッキが良い選択となることはないでしょう。実際の勝率は、《王冠泥棒、オーコ》以外のデッキに対して50%、《王冠泥棒、オーコ》に対しては43%でした。

私の予想:

  • 2枚のカードだけが禁止された場合: 世界を揺るがす者、ニッサRampは依然としてTier 1デッキです(ただし、ニッサが禁止カードにならない限り)
  • 3~4枚のカードが禁止された場合:Rakdos AggroとSelesnya Adventuresが最高のデッキとして始まり、そこから自然にメタゲームが発展していきます。ランプは依然として選択肢の一つです
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Brian Braun-Duin

Brian Braun-Duinは、Magic the Gatheringのプロプレーヤー。Magic Pro League2019のメンバーであり、Bash Bros Podcastに定期的に登場する特別ゲストです。

Connect:Twitch Twitter

(Translated by NIMAME)

*MTG Diggingでは、随時ご要望をお待ちしております。 こんな題材が欲しい、この記事を翻訳して読みやすくして欲しいといった希望がありましたらお気軽にご相談下さい。      

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